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Modelling export and import demand functions: the Spanish case

Author

Listed:
  • Coral García

    () (Banco de España)

  • Esther Gordo

    () (Banco de España)

  • Jaime Martínez-Martín

    () (AQR-IREA, Universidad de Barcelona)

  • Patrocinio Tello

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

During the last decades the exchange trade in Spain overseas has experienced a major boost, firstly related to European market integration and, recently, to the worldwide globalization process, whereby huge exporters (i.e. China or India) have raised to the new international scene and the development of services’ international exchange both played a key role. These changes make the analysis of the conditioning main factors for explaining the evolution of exchange trade flows in Spain by means of econometric models especially hard, since they seldom may approach the special features of the long term under consideration. The aim of this paper is showing the results obtained once traditional demand functions for imports and exports of goods and services for the Spanish economy – quarterly series from National Accounts for the period 1980-2006 – were re-estimated. Besides, within goods’ flows based on home and host’s Euro Area exports and imports, on one hand, and worldwide, on the other, are taken into consideration in order to prove whether trade flows’ determinants may vary across host markets where goods are exchanged. The estimated equations allow us identifying whether traditional determinants on trade flows abroad have suffered relevant changes and how they have contributed in explaining the evolution of the period 1980-2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Coral García & Esther Gordo & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Patrocinio Tello, 2009. "Modelling export and import demand functions: the Spanish case," Occasional Papers 0905, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0905
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/09/Fic/do0905.pdf
    File Function: First Spanish version, December 2009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spanish Economy; Macroeconometric Model; International Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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