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Forecasting the yield curve using a dynamic natural cubic spline model

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  • Feng, Pan
  • Qian, Junhui

Abstract

We propose a dynamic natural cubic spline model with a two-step procedure for the forecasting of the entire yield curve. We apply our method to the monthly Chinese yield-curve data and evaluate the out-of-sample forecast performance. We find that our method compares favourably with its competitors, especially in the medium and long-term forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Pan & Qian, Junhui, 2018. "Forecasting the yield curve using a dynamic natural cubic spline model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 73-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:168:y:2018:i:c:p:73-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.04.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    2. Tabak, B.M. & Sollaci, A.B. & Gomes, G.M. & Cajueiro, D.O., 2012. "Forecasting the yield curve for the Euro region," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 513-516.
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    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    5. Caio Almeida & Kym Ardison & Daniela Kubudi & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2018. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33.
    6. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel, 2014. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis With Application To The Us Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 65-90, January.
    7. Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
    8. Wolfgang K. Härdle & Piotr Majer, 2016. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 1109-1129, September.
    9. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic natural cubic spline model; Chinese yield curve; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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