Forecasting the Yield Curve for the Euro Region
This paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one-month forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008.
"The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO5, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve," Working Papers 0804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Economics Papers 2008-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vicente, José & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008.
"Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 490-497.
- Jose Vicente & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Bonds Yields in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market," Working Papers Series 141, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.