Forecasting the yield curve for the Euro region
This paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one- and three-months forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008.
"The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve,"
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American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Economics Papers 2008-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve," Working Papers 0804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Vicente, José & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008.
"Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 490-497.
- Jose Vicente & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Bonds Yields in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market," Working Papers Series 141, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
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