Forecasting the yield curve for the Euro region
This paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one- and three-months forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.
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- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008.
"The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve,"
2008-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
- Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve," Working Papers 0804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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