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Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models

Author

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  • Cepni, Oguzhan
  • Christou, Christina
  • Gupta, Rangan

Abstract

This paper utilizes Bayesian (static) model averaging (BMA) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) incorporated into Markov-switching (MS) models to forecast business cycle turning points of the United States (US) with state-level climate risks data, proxied by temperature changes and their (realized) volatility. We find that forecasts obtained from the DMA combination scheme provide timely updates of US business cycles based on the information content of metrics of state-level climate risks, particularly the volatility of temperature, relative to the corresponding small-scale MS benchmarks that use national-level values of climate change-related predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Cepni, Oguzhan & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:227:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523001465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111121
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    Cited by:

    1. Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024. "Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Liao, Wenting & Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar, 2024. "Extreme weather shocks and state-level inflation of the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Kiran, Madiha & Alnori, Faisal & Rabbani, Mustafa Raza & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2026. "Going green or losing edge: A global investigation into the role of carbon risk on banks' green investments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    4. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Time-Varying effects of extreme weather shocks on output growth of the United States," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Rabbani, Mustafa Raza & Kiran, Madiha & Cepni, Oguzhan & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2025. "Fortune favors the green: Role of green investment in mitigating climate risk and the moderating role of ESG performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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