IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts

  • West, Carol T.

    (U FL)

Registered author(s):

    Recent reviews of the regional growth and change literature conclude that the strand of research attempting to identify determinants of growth in general terms has been reasonably successful, but the strand attempting to provide public policy direction has been far less successful. A critical distinction between these two strands is that the former studies the past while the latter makes a forecast. One of the reasons we may not have been particularly effective in guiding public policy is that we haven't addressed the question, Is the accuracy of our regional forecasting record acceptable? This paper reviews the literature on evaluating regional forecast accuracy, discusses the question of When is a regional forecast 'accurate'? and outlines how accuracy analysis can be used to improve forecast precision. A concluding section suggests possible avenues for future research.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Southern Regional Science Association in its journal Review of Regional Studies.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 85-103

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Coomes, Paul A., 1992. "A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 473-481, March.
    2. Bretschneider, Stuart & Schroeder, Larry, 1985. "Revenue forecasting, budget setting and risk," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 431-439.
    3. West, Carol Taylor & Theil, Henri, 1991. "An Empirical Analysis of Stein Effects in Regional Forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 363-73.
    4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521632423 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nelson, Charles R, 1972. "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 902-17, December.
    6. Richard S. Conway Jr., 1990. "The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 13(1-2), pages 141-165, April.
    7. Bordignon, Silvano & Trivellato, Ugo, 1989. "The Optimal Use of Provisional Data in Forecasting with Dynamic Model s," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 275-86, April.
    8. Mork, Knut Anton, 1987. "Ain't Behavin': Forecast Errors and Measurement Errors in Early GNP Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 165-75, April.
    9. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    10. Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts," Papers 16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
    11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Timothy J. Bartik & Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, . "The Perplexing Literature on Growth and Change," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles tjb2003rrs, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    13. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
    14. West, Carol Taylor, 2003. "Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35.
    15. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
    16. Bretschneider, Stuart & Gorr, Wilpen, 1992. "Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 457-466, March.
    17. McNees, Stephen K, 1978. "The "Rationality" of Economic Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 301-05, May.
    18. David G. Lenze, 2000. "Forecast Accuracy and Efficiency: An Evaluation of Ex Ante Substate Long-Term Forecasts," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 23(2), pages 201-226, April.
    19. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
    20. Jacob S. Siegel, 1953. "Forecasting the Population of Small Areas," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 72-88.
    21. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
    22. Cassidy, Glenn & Kamlet, Mark S. & Nagin, Daniel S., 1989. "An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 321-331.
    23. Gentry, William M., 1989. "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 42(4), pages 429-39, December.
    24. Taylor, Carol A. & Theil, Henri, 1988. "Modeling the accuracy of certain regional predictions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 453-462, November.
    25. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 2003. "Do We Know Economic Development When We See It?," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 33(1), pages 17-39.
    26. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark L. Burkey)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.