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Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads

  • Nektarios Aslanidis

    (University of Monash)

  • Andrea Cipollini

    (University of Essex)

The focus of this paper is on the leading indicator properties of high-yield corporate spreads regarding the level of real economic activity. This is motivated by both the financial accelerator mechanism underlying business cycle fluctuations as suggested by Bernanke and Gertler (1989). We examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of the high-yield spreads regarding employment and industrial production in the US, using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sub sectors high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that there is a substantial gain from using a Dynamic Factor fitted to credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR and ARDL models, where the exogenous regressor is either the term spread, or the aggregate high-yield spread.

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 115.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:115
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  1. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
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  13. Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2000. "Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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  21. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:4:p:482-505 is not listed on IDEAS
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