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Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030

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  • Felipe, Jesus
  • Kumar, Utsav
  • Abdon, Arnelyn

Abstract

We forecast average annual GDP growth for 147 countries for 2010–2030. We use a cross-country regression model where the long-run fundamentals are determined by the countries’ accumulated capabilities and the capacity to undergo structural transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:26:y:2012:i:1:p:153-166 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2011.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Arnelyn Abdon, 2010. "As You Sow So Shall You Reap: From Capabilities to Opportunities," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_613, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Norio Usui & Arnelyn Abdon, 2013. "Why has China succeeded? And why it will continue to do so," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 791-818.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 569-585.
    6. Juan Zalduendo & Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 04/203, International Monetary Fund.
    7. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," CID Working Papers 128, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Arnelyn Abdon, 2014. "As You Sow So Shall You Reap: From Capabilities to Opportunities," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 488-515.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roehlano M. Briones & Jesus Felipe, 2016. "Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Developing Asia: Review and Outlook," Working Papers id:8696, eSocialSciences.
    2. Briones, Roehlano & Felipe, Jesus, 2013. "Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Developing Asia: Review and Outlook," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 363, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capabilities; Forecast; Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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