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South Africa’s Export Predicament

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Hausmann

    (Harvard's Growth Lab)

  • Bailey Klinger

Abstract

This paper explores export performance in South Africa over the past 50 years, and concludes that a lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita. Slow structural transformation in South Africa is found to be a consequence of the peripheral nature of South Africa’s productive capabilities. We apply new tools to evaluate South Africa’s future prospects for structural transformation, as well as to explore the sectoral priorities of the DTI’s draft industrial strategy. We then discuss policy conclusions, advocating an ‘open-architecture’ industrial policy where the methods applied herein are but one tool to screen private sector requests for sector-specific coordination and public goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger, 2006. "South Africa’s Export Predicament," Growth Lab Working Papers 6, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    • Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:6
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    File URL: https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/sites/projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/2006-08-glwp-06-south_africa_export_predicament.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Rattsø, Jørn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2012. "Trade policy in a growth model with technology gap dynamics and simulations for South Africa," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1042-1056.
    2. Massie, Natanael Waraney Gerald & Mangunsong, Carlos, 2022. "Products as Network: An Empirical Approximation of the Manufacturing Production Network in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 114647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shan Li & Xun Li & Wei Lang & Haohui Chen & Xiaoguang Huang, 2021. "The Spatial and Mechanism Difference in the Export Evolution of Product Space in Global Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Berhanu Abegaz, 2008. "The Speed Of Structural Convergence In The Manufacturing Industries Of Newly Industrialising Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(s2), pages 89-109, August.
    5. Madani , Dorsati H. & Mas-Guix, Natalia, 2011. "The impact of export tax incentives on export performance : evidence from the automotive sector in South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5585, The World Bank.
    6. Ricardo Hausmann & Jasmina Chauvin, 2015. "Moving to the Adjacent Possible: Discovering Paths for Export Diversification in Rwanda," CID Working Papers 294, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Francis Lwesya, 2018. "Export Diversification and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(68), pages 93-110, June.
    8. Sandra Poncet & Felipe Starosta de Waldemar, 2015. "Product Relatedness and Firm Exports in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 579-605.
    9. Carmen Heinrich & Christoph Knill & Yves Steinebach, 2025. "Analyzing industrial policy portfolios," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 58(1), pages 87-109, March.
    10. Hilsenrath, Peter & Pogue, Thomas, 2017. "Distributed dynamic capabilities in South Africa's mineral resource-finance network," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 57-67.
    11. Danie Francois Toerien, 2022. "Temporal and Geographic Stress Testing of Entrepreneurial Proportionalities in United States Counties," World, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-31, July.
    12. Jørn Rattsø & Hildegunn E. Stokke, 2007. "A Growth Model For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 616-630, December.
    13. Martins Iyoboyi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Analysis of Export Diversification in Nigeria," Empirical Economic Review, Department of Economics and Statistics, Dr Hassan Murad School of Management, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, vol. 2(1), pages 83-116.
    14. Andrews, Matthew, 2008. "Is Black Economic Empowerment a South African Growth Catalyst? (Or Could It Be...)," Working Paper Series rwp08-033, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    15. Matt Andrews, 2008. "Is Black Economic Empowerment a South African Growth Catalyst? (Or Could it Be...)," CID Working Papers 170, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Jørn Rattsø & Hildegunn E. Stokke, 2009. "Trade barriers to growth in South Africa: Endogenous investment-productivity-trade interaction," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_010, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    17. Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger, 2009. "Erratum," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(1), pages 211-212, January.
    18. Berhanu Abegaz, 2007. "The Speed of Structural Convergence in the Manufacturing Industries of Newly Industrializing Economies," Working Papers 67, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    19. Wouter G. Bam & Karolien Bruyne & Mare Laing, 2021. "The IO–PS in the context of GVC-related policymaking: The case of the South African automotive industry," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(3), pages 410-432, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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