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Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Carone
  • Cécile Denis
  • Kieran Mc Morrow
  • Gilles Mourre
  • Werner Röger

Abstract

This paper presents the results of long run labour productivity and GDP growth rate projections (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States and provides a detailed overview of the forecast methodology used. These projections were undertaken in order to provide an internationally comparable macroeconomic framework against which to assess the potential economic and fiscal effects of ageing populations. This assessment was carried out as part of the work undertaken by the EU's Economic Policy Committee, in its Ageing Working Group, to project the public expenditure implications of ageing on pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment insurance and education.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0253
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Holzmann & Landis MacKellar & Jana Repansek, 2009. "Pension Reform in Southeastern Europe : Linking to Labor and Financial Market Reforms," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2587.
    2. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Growth crisis in the EU — challenges and prospects," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 45(5), pages 329-336, September.
    3. Halmai, Péter, 2011. "Válság és a potenciális növekedés az Európai Unióban
      [Crisis and potential growth in the European Union]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1059-1081.
    4. G. Lalanne & E. Pouliquen & O. Simon, 2009. "Oil price and potential output growth in the long run," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2009-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    5. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
    6. Jana Znidarsic, 2010. "Age management in Slovenian enterprises: the viewpoint of older employees," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 271-301.
    7. Servaas Deroose & Martin Larch & Andrea Schachter, 2011. "Constricted, lame and pro-cyclical? Fiscal policy in the euro area revisited," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, pages 162-184.
    8. Halmai, Péter, 2015. "Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója és válsága
      [Erosion and crisis in European growth potential]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 379-414.
    9. Herman de Kwaatsteniet, 2011. "Demand Variability in Supply Chains: The Influence of Global developments and Globalization on the Local Dutch Steel Industry," Working Papers 2011/32, Maastricht School of Management.
    10. Luke Brander & Ingo Bräuer & Holger Gerdes & Andrea Ghermandi & Onno Kuik & Anil Markandya & Ståle Navrud & Paulo Nunes & Marije Schaafsma & Hans Vos & Alfred Wagtendonk, 2012. "Using Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, pages 395-413.
    11. P. Halmai & V. Vásáry, 2011. "Crisis and economic growth in the EU," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 61(4), pages 465-485, December.
    12. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    13. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
    14. Barrios, Salvador & Burgelman, Jean-Claude, 2007. "Information and Communication Technologies, Market Rigidities and Growth: Implications for EU Policies," MPRA Paper 5838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Why Does Austria's Economy Grow Faster than Germany's?," WIFO Working Papers 280, WIFO.
    16. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour productivity; GDP projections; ageing populations; public expenditure; pensions; health care; long-term care; unemployment; education; Carone; Denis; Mc Morrow; Mourre; Röger;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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