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Разработка Модели Системной Динамики Для Энергетического Сектора В Латвии
[Development of system dynamics model for the energy sector in Latvia]

Author

Listed:
  • Skribans, Valerijs

Abstract

One of the most pressing problems in the Latvian economy is related to the energy sector. The most characteristic feature is coupled with the low efficiency of thermal energy consumption of households as a result of poor insulation of existing buildings in Latvia. Solving energy sector problems requires a comprehensive decision, both in energy production and consumption. It is therefore necessary to develop energy sector model to be able to evaluate not only the energy consumption growth and the factors affecting it directly, but also the feedback caused by the increase of the efficiency growth. The model shown in the article has been developed using system dynamic method. Latvian energy sector model consists of resources, production and consumption blocks. A separate place is taken by electricity generation hydroelectric power plants (HPP), net imports of electricity and so on. Resource blocks consist of primary energy resource blocks: petroleum products, solid fuel, wood and gas blocks. Primary energy resources are used for production of other energy forms, i.e. heat or electricity production, they are shown in the production blocks. Both the primary energy and produced energy (and electricity generated by HPP) are passed on to final consumers, who make consumer unit blocks. It consists of: transport, agriculture, households and other (industrial and services sectors) blocks. The model key role is to forecast energy consumption by separate groups, both consumers and energy resources groups; to estimate energy sector impact on environment. The model has been developed to estimate the impact of buildings thermo insulation program on Latvian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Skribans, Valerijs, 2011. "Разработка Модели Системной Динамики Для Энергетического Сектора В Латвии
    [Development of system dynamics model for the energy sector in Latvia]
    ," MPRA Paper 39251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39251
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39251/1/MPRA_paper_39251.pdf
    File Function: original version
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Influence Of Labour Migration On Latvia’s Labour Market," MPRA Paper 16596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Skribans, Valerijs, 2002. "Būvnozares prognozēšanas modelis un tā izstrādāšanas metodika
      [Construction industry forecasting model and it development method]
      ," MPRA Paper 16364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Skribans, V., 2001. "Jaunā ekonomika un jaunie tirgi: pamatprincipi un veidošanās problēmas
      [The new economic and new markets: general principles and developing problems]
      ," MPRA Paper 16362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Krīzes un 2009. gada nodokļu politikas izmaiņu ietekme uz Latvijas ekonomiku
      [Influence of the Crisis and 2009 Tax Policy Changes on the Latvian Economy]
      ," MPRA Paper 19141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Skribans, Valerijs, 2008. "Jauna produkta ievešanas tirgū modelēšana, izmantojot sistēmdinamikas metodi
      [Modelling of the new product introduction into market, using system dynamics method]
      ," MPRA Paper 16354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy efficiency; consumption; system dynamic; modelling and simulation; building warming and renovation; the CO2 emissions and quotas;

    JEL classification:

    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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