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Būvnozares prognozēšanas modelis un tā izstrādāšanas metodika
[Construction industry forecasting model and it development method]


  • Skribans, Valerijs


There has been conducted research on the theme of forecasting in construction industry. Brunch model developing is problem in forecasting. In the paper is worked out influential factor system for construction industry. General part of industry forecasting model is part of demand forecasting. Construction demand consists of governmental, private and enterprises demand. Main idea of paper is that economic growth changes population economic structure. With economic growth population wellbeing increases in all revenue groups, persons move from one revenue group to next more rich. Possibility to estimate population structural changes, population growth, average revenue level of any group gives good quantity in private demand forecasting. Construction branch demand consists of total governmental, private and enterprises demand. This method allows seeing level of demand in different construction markets: private housing, industrial and strategic object building, reconstruction with high quantity.

Suggested Citation

  • Skribans, Valerijs, 2002. "Būvnozares prognozēšanas modelis un tā izstrādāšanas metodika
    [Construction industry forecasting model and it development method]
    ," MPRA Paper 16364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16364

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    Cited by:

    1. Skribans, Valerijs, 2011. "Разработка Модели Системной Динамики Для Энергетического Сектора В Латвии
      [Development of system dynamics model for the energy sector in Latvia]
      ," MPRA Paper 39251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Модель Жилищного Строительства В Постсоциалистических Странах На Примере Латвии
      [Housing model in the post socialistic countries on the example of Latvia]
      ," MPRA Paper 22229, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    business developing; construction economy; dynamic simulation; econometric model; forecasting; market research and analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation


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