Jauna produkta ievešanas tirgū modelēšana, izmantojot sistēmdinamikas metodi[Modelling of the new product introduction into market, using system dynamics method]

System dynamics methods have found a wider application in decision making recently .The aim of the present paper is to substantiate the application of the possibilities of system dynamics methods, by modelling innovations and the introduction of new products into the market. The research presents the model of forecasting the mobile telephone market in Latvia; it gives the comparison of the software of system dynamics modelling. The simulation of the mobile telephone market has been worked out and the potential market volume has been determined. The actual market dynamics has been compared to the simulation results and the factors which influence the market volume have been investigated and suggestions for analysing these factors have been provided. The author presents the comparison of the Bass Diffusion Model modification with that of the Sterman Model for repeated purchases, with modification being adjusted for the Latvian mobile telephone market. The author admits that each mobile telephone purchased becomes obsolete after exceeding the average service time. The paper also gives an analysis of J. Sterman`s approach, who considers that product obsolescence is directly proportional to the number of buyers (mobile phone users) and inversely proportional to the product average service time.