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Non-parameteric news impact curve: a variational approach

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for modelling the news impact curve. The news impact curve provides a non-linear relation between past returns and current volatility and thus enables to forecast volatility. Our news impact curve is the solution of a dynamic optimization problem based on variational calculus. Consequently, it is a non-parametric and smooth curve. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a method is used for volatility modelling. Applications on simulated heteroskedastic processes as well as on financial data show a better accuracy in estimation and forecast for this approach than for standard parametric (symmetric or asymmetric ARCH) or non-parametric (Kernel-ARCH) econometric techniques

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  • Matthieu Garcin & Clément Goulet, 2015. "Non-parameteric news impact curve: a variational approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15086rr, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Feb 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15086rr
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Garcin, 2019. "Fractal analysis of the multifractality of foreign exchange rates [Analyse fractale de la multifractalité des taux de change]," Working Papers hal-02283915, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility modeling; news impact curve; calculus of variations; wavelet theory; ARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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