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Modeling and Forecasting the Long Memory of Cyclical Trends in Paleoclimate Data

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  • Barrio Castro, Tomás del
  • Escribano, Álvaro
  • Sibbertsen, Philipp

Abstract

This paper identifies and estimates the relevant cycles in paleoclimate data of earth temperature, ice volume and CO2. Cyclical cointegration analysis is used to connect these cycles to the earth eccentricity and obliquity and to see that the earth surface temperature and ice volume are closely connected. These findings are used to build a forecasting model including the cyclical component as well as the relevant earth and climate variables which outperforms models ignoring the cyclical behaviour of the data. Especially the turning points can be predicted accurately using the proposed approach. Out of sample forecasts for the turning points of earth temperature, ice volume and CO2 are derived.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrio Castro, Tomás del & Escribano, Álvaro & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2024. "Modeling and Forecasting the Long Memory of Cyclical Trends in Paleoclimate Data," UC3M Working papers. Economics 43987, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:43987
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bauwens, Luc & Chevillon, Guillaume & Laurent, Sébastien, 2023. "We modeled long memory with just one lag!," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    2. Leschinski, Christian & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2019. "Model order selection in periodic long memory models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 78-94.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2020. "Climate Econometrics: An Overview," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 10(3-4), pages 145-322, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Paleoclimate Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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