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An inflation expectations horserace

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  • Guzman, Giselle C.

Abstract

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to outperform the standard three low frequency survey measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality, indicating that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Guzman, Giselle C., 2010. "An inflation expectations horserace," MPRA Paper 36511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36511
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40233/2/MPRA_paper_40233.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    3. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    6. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-173, May.
    7. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March.
    8. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    9. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    12. Giselle Guzmán, 2009. "Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns," Chapters,in: The Making of National Economic Forecasts, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; expectations; surveys; households; economists; rationality; efficiency; unbiasedness; forecast accuracy; out-of-sample forecasts; Granger Causality; high-frequency data; price level; money and prices; CPI; PPI; PCE;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Y40 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Dissertations - - - Dissertations
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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