IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/93069.html

CRISK: Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of the Financial System

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We develop a market-based methodology to assess banks’ resilience to climate-related risks and study the climate-related risk exposure of large global banks. We introduce a new measure, CRISK, which is the expected capital shortfall of a bank in a climate stress scenario. To estimate CRISK, we construct climate risk factors and dynamically measure banks’ stock return sensitivity (that is, climate beta) to the climate risk factor. We validate the climate risk factor empirically and the climate beta estimates by using granular data on large U.S. banks’ loan portfolios. The measure is useful in quantifying banks’ climaterelated risk exposure through the market risk and the credit risk channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Berner & Robert Engle & Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "CRISK: Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of the Financial System," Staff Reports 977, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:93069
    Note: Revised March 2025. Previous title: “Climate Stress Testing”
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr977.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr977.html
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence Van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1449-1498, June.
    2. Robert F Engle & Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Heebum Lee & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "Hedging Climate Change News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1184-1216.
    3. Edith Ginglinger & Quentin Moreau, 2023. "Climate Risk and Capital Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7492-7516, December.
    4. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & McCarten, Matthew & Tan, Eric K.M., 2023. "Climate transition risk in U.S. loan portfolios: Are all banks the same?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Reinders, Henk Jan & Schoenmaker, Dirk & van Dijk, Mathijs, 2023. "A finance approach to climate stress testing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    7. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    8. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    9. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2018. "The real effects of bank-driven termination of relationships: Evidence from loan-level matched data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 46-65.
    10. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M Stulz, 2021. "How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5474-5521.
    11. Georgij Alekseev & Stefano Giglio & Quinn Maingi & Julia Selgrad & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "A Quantity-Based Approach to Constructing Climate Risk Hedge Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 30703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sudheer Chava, 2014. "Environmental Externalities and Cost of Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2223-2247, September.
    13. Gianluca De Nard & Robert F. Engle & Bryan Kelly, 2024. "Factor-Mimicking Portfolios for Climate Risk," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 80(3), pages 37-58, July.
    14. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    15. Linda Allen & Turan G. Bali & Yi Tang, 2012. "Does Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Predict Future Economic Downturns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3000-3036.
    16. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    17. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    18. Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander, 2023. "Carbon taxes and the geography of fossil lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Robert F. Engle, 2016. "Dynamic Conditional Beta," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 643-667.
    20. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    21. Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2020. "The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1067-1111.
    22. Kristian S. Blickle & Cecilia Parlatore & Anthony Saunders, 2021. "Specialization in Banking," Staff Reports 967, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    25. Engle, Robert F. & Campos-Martins, Susana, 2023. "What are the events that shake our world? Measuring and hedging global COVOL," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 221-242.
    26. Liberti, José María & Sturgess, Jason, 2018. "The Anatomy of a Credit Supply Shock: Evidence from an Internal Credit Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 547-579, April.
    27. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2015. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 733-768, April.
    28. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.
    29. Fuchun Li & Héctor Pérez Saiz, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures," Staff Working Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
    30. Robert Engle & Shan Ge & Hyeyoon Jung & Xuran Zeng, 2023. "Physical Climate Risk Factors and an Application to Measuring Insurers’ Climate Risk Exposure," Staff Reports 1066, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    31. Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2020. "Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 281-298, October.
    32. Michael Schwert, 2018. "Bank Capital and Lending Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 787-830, April.
    33. Ricardo Correa & Ai He & Christoph Herpfer & Ugur Lel, 2022. "The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1345, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Gehrig, Thomas & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2021. "Did the Basel Process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European banks?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Tristan Jourde & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, 2026. "Environmental preferences and sector valuations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 162(1), pages 45-85, February.
    5. Choi, Sanghak & Jung, Hail & Kim, Daejin, 2025. "Climate change risk and the marginal value of cash holdings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Bank for International Settlements, 2023. "The effects of climate change-related risks on banks: a literature review," BCBS Working Papers 40, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Mishra, Dev R. & Somé, Hyacinthe Y., 2025. "Firm-level climate sentiments, climate politics and implied cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    9. Hyeyoon Jung & João Santos & Lee Seltzer, 2025. "US banks' exposures to climate transition risks," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Addressing climate change data needs: the central banks' contribution, volume 63, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Yan, Guan & Li, Fanglin & Liu, Zhidong & Zhou, Lu Jolly, 2025. "Climate risk concern and green premium in the stock market: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Armanious, Amir, 2024. "Too-systemic-to-fail: Empirical comparison of systemic risk measures in the Eurozone financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Horn, Matthias & Oehler, Andreas, 2024. "Constructing stock portfolios by sorting on ESG ratings: Does the rating provider matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    14. He, Feng & Ren, Xingzi & Wang, Yueren & Lei, Xingfan, 2025. "Climate risk and corporate bond credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Liu, Yulin & Wang, Junbo & Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Chunchi, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A creative destruction perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Nguyen, Minh Nhat & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2025. "Performance of energy ETFs and climate risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Tristan Jourde & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, 2024. "Environmental preferences and sector valuations," Post-Print halshs-04948464, HAL.
    18. Nguyen, Justin Hung & Truong, Cameron & Zhang, Bohui, 2025. "The price of carbon risk: Evidence from the Kyoto Protocol ratification," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Roy Kouwenberg & Chenglong Zheng, 2023. "A Review of the Global Climate Finance Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-32, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:93069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.