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CRISK: Measuring the climate risk exposure of the financial system

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  • Jung, Hyeyoon
  • Engle, Robert F.
  • Berner, Richard

Abstract

We develop a market-based methodology to assess banks’ resilience to climate-related risks and study the climate-related risk exposure of large global banks. We introduce a new measure, CRISK, which is the expected capital shortfall of a bank in a climate stress scenario. To estimate CRISK, we construct climate risk factors and dynamically measure banks’ stock return sensitivity (that is, climate beta) to the climate risk factor. We validate the climate risk factor empirically and the climate beta estimates by using granular data on large US banks’ loan portfolios. The measure is useful in quantifying banks’ climate-related risk exposure through the market risk and the credit risk channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Jung, Hyeyoon & Engle, Robert F. & Berner, Richard, 2025. "CRISK: Measuring the climate risk exposure of the financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:171:y:2025:i:c:s0304405x25000844
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104076
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    Keywords

    Climate risk; Financial stability; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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