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Measuring the Impact of Transition Risk on Financial Markets: A Joint VaR‐ES Approach

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  • Laura Garcia‐Jorcano
  • Lidia Sanchis‐Marco

Abstract

Based on a joint quantile and expected shortfall semiparametric methodology, we propose a novel approach to forecasting market risk conditioned to transition risk exposure. This method allows us to forecast two climate‐related financial risk measures called CoClimateVaR and CoClimateES, being jointly elicitable, that capture the dependence of the European extreme bank returns on changes in carbon returns at extreme quantiles representing green and brown states. We evaluate our approach using a novel backtesting procedure and introduce related measures ( ΔCoClimate and ExposureClimate). The main evidence states that the CoClimateES measure presents the highest risk for the brown (green) state due to the presence of carbon cost (carbon risk premium) in Ph.II (Ph.III) of the EU Emissions Trading System. Furthermore, we found the highest (lowest) financial risk forecasts for CoClimateES in green (brown) states during COVID‐19. These results offer important implications for investors and policymakers regarding the effects of transition risk on the European financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Garcia‐Jorcano & Lidia Sanchis‐Marco, 2025. "Measuring the Impact of Transition Risk on Financial Markets: A Joint VaR‐ES Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1907-1945, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:44:y:2025:i:6:p:1907-1945
    DOI: 10.1002/for.3274
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