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US banks' exposures to climate transition risks

In: Addressing climate change data needs: the central banks' contribution

Author

Listed:
  • Hyeyoon Jung
  • João Santos
  • Lee Seltzer

Abstract

We propose a new approach to estimate banks’ credit exposures to transition risks that combines sectoral effects of climate policies from general equilibrium (GE) models with historical information on loans’ default risks. At worst, estimated exposures reach 14 percent of bank loan portfolio values. Accounting for historic loan payoff structures reduces exposures to 0.5 percent–2 percent. Exposures can increase by 3–5 percentage points due to aggregate economic shocks. Analyses surrounding climate transition events suggest our estimates can serve as an upper bound on banks’ transition risk exposures. Highlighting our measure’s novelty, emissions explain at most 60 percent of variation in banks’ exposures.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hyeyoon Jung & João Santos & Lee Seltzer, 2025. "US banks' exposures to climate transition risks," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Addressing climate change data needs: the central banks' contribution, volume 63, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisifc:63-13
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    File URL: https://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb63_13.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bell, Jennifer & Battisti, Giuliana & Guin, Benjamin, 2023. "The greening of lending: Evidence from banks’ pricing of energy efficiency before climate-related regulation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Baracani, Manuela & Favoino, Fabio & Fantucci, Stefano & Serra, Valentina & Perino, Marco & Introna, Marisandra & Limbach, Rene & Wondraczek, Lothar, 2023. "Experimental assessment of the energy performance of microfluidic glazing components: The first results of a monitoring campaign carried out in an outdoor test facility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    4. Grill, Michael & Popescu, Alexandra & Rancoita, Elena, 2024. "Climate transition risk in the banking sector: what can prudential regulation do?," Working Paper Series 2910, European Central Bank.
    5. Allen, Thomas & Boullot, Mathieu & Dées, Stéphane & de Gaye, Annabelle & Lisack, Noëmie & Thubin, Camille & Wegner, Oriane, 2025. "Using short-term scenarios to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Ghosh, Saibal, 2023. "Does climate legislation matter for bank lending? Evidence from MENA countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Douglas Cumming & My Nguyen & Anh Viet Pham & Ama Samarasinghe, 2025. "Banking system stability: A global analysis of cybercrime laws," Papers 2512.01237, arXiv.org.
    8. Bartsch, Florian & Busies, Iulia & Emambakhsh, Tina & Grill, Michael & Simoens, Mathieu & Spaggiari, Martina & Tamburrini, Fabio, 2024. "Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks," Working Paper Series 2943, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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