Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation
Central to the conduct of monetary policy is the preparation and evaluation of inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are, however, not unique. Central banks, professional organizations, international institutions, households and firms also generate forecasts of inflation, among other macroeconomic variables that reflect the expected state of the economy. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies, five of which target inflation over the 1999-2009 period. I find that central bank transparency tends to increase forecast disagreement. To the extent that this reflects the attention paid to inflation performance this suggests that transparency is beneficial. Also, it appears that inflation forecasts are largely driven by a global component but the impact of this global component on forecast disagreement is mixed.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103|
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carin van der Cruijsen & Maria Demertzis, 2005.
"The Impact of Central Bank Transparency on Inflation Expectations,"
DNB Working Papers
031, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.