Seasonal Cycles in European Agricultural Commodity Prices
This paper explores the seasonal cycles of European agricultural commodity prices. We focus on three food crops (barley, soft and durum wheat) and on beef. We investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit-root stochastic and whether seasonal cycle for specific agricultural commodities have converged over time. Finally, we develop time-series models that are capable of forecasting agricultural prices on a quarterly basis. Firstly, we find that seasonal cycles in agricultural commodity prices are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries varies over agricultural commodities. The prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not always match the statistical in-sample evidence.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://www.ihs.ac.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996.
"The Economics of Seasonal Cycles,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, September.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Robert M. Kunst & Michael Reutter, 2000. "Decisions on Seasonal Unit Roots," CESifo Working Paper Series 286, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001.
"The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562607, December.
- Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, July.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Palaskas, Theodosios B & Crowe, Trevor J, 1996. "Testing for Price Transmission with Seasonally Integrated Producer and Consumer Price Series from Agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 473-486.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doris Szoncsitz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.