A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to U.S. Inflation
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied trend inflation estimate evolves smoothly and is well aligned with survey expectations. There is evidence in favor of the variation of trend inflation following from the underlying marginal cost that drives inflation.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sahuc, J-G., 2004.
"Partial Indexation, Trend Inflation, and the Hybrid Phillips Curve,"
118, Banque de France.
- Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2006. "Partial indexation, trend inflation, and the hybrid Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 42-50, January.
- Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2004. "Partial Indexation, Trend Inflation, and the Hybrid Phillips Curve," Documents de recherche 04-05, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.