Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note
We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.
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- Jens R Clausen & Bianca Clausen, 2010. "Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time; How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?," IMF Working Papers 10/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011.
"Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2012. "Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 1422, European Central Bank.
- Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
- Matheson, Troy D., 2008.
"Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy,"
Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
- Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-43, May.
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