Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note
We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Grosse Scharrnstrasse 59, 15230 Frankfurt (Oder)|
Phone: +49 (0)335 5534 2387
Fax: +49 (0)335 5534 2516
Web page: http://www.wiwi.euv-frankfurt-o.de/en/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-43, May.
- Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2012.
"Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters,"
Working Paper Series
1422, European Central Bank.
- Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
- Jens R Clausen & Bianca Clausen, 2010. "Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time; How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?," IMF Working Papers 10/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Troy Matheson, 2006.
"Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.