IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v9y2021i2p73-d550064.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India

Author

Listed:
  • Vijay Victor

    (Department of Economics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru 560029, Karnataka, India)

  • Joshy Joseph Karakunnel

    (Department of Economics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru 560029, Karnataka, India)

  • Swetha Loganathan

    (Department of Economics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru 560029, Karnataka, India)

  • Daniel Francois Meyer

    (College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa)

Abstract

The recession in India and the UK peaked in 2017 due to the implications of new policy initiatives. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 intensified the crisis, causing a drastic decline in aggregate demand and output. India and the UK have resorted to monetary and fiscal stimulus packages to face the economic crisis. This study investigated the inflation–unemployment dynamics during the recession and COVID-19 times in India and the UK. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), the results of this study revealed that the recession had given way to stagflation in India. In contrast, in the UK, it has led to a more severe recession in the short-run. During the downturn, policy initiatives aggravate the recession and eventually turn to stagflation in India due to inflation caused by the weak supply side. However, in the UK, the policy initiatives during this downturn pushed the economy into a deeper recession due to reduced demand. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a similar recessionary impact on both economies. A time horizon based recovery plan is suggested to help the economies recover from stagflation and even deeper recession. This framework could enable policymakers to choose the right path of recovery within the shortest possible time.

Suggested Citation

  • Vijay Victor & Joshy Joseph Karakunnel & Swetha Loganathan & Daniel Francois Meyer, 2021. "From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:73-:d:550064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/9/2/73/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/9/2/73/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattarai, Keshab, 2017. "Impacts of GST reforms on efficiency, growth and redistribution of income in India: A Dynamic CGE Analysis," MPRA Paper 92139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. S. Mahendra Dev & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2020. "Covid-19: Impact on the Indian economy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Dimitris Papanikolaou & Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, 2020. "Working Remotely and the Supply-side Impact of Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 27330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2009. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1481-1502, October.
    5. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 317-337, April.
    6. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    7. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
    8. Lenoël, Cyrille & Macqueen, Rory & Young, Garry, 2020. "Prospects For The Uk Economy," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 253, pages 4-34, August.
    9. Harendra Behera & Garima Wahi & Muneesh Kapur, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," Working Papers id:11973, eSocialSciences.
    10. Kumar, Rajiv & Vashisht, Pankaj, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis: Impact on India and Policy Responses," ADBI Working Papers 164, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    12. P. Ormerod & B. Rosewell & P. Phelps, 2013. "Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1519-1531, April.
    13. Alok Kumar Mishra & Badri Narayan Rath & Aruna Kumar Dash, 2020. "Does the Indian Financial Market Nosedive because of the COVID-19 Outbreak, in Comparison to after Demonetisation and the GST?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2162-2180, August.
    14. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    15. Valtiala, Juho PIetari & Ovaska, Sami & Sipiläinen, Timo, 2019. "Investigating the Determinants of Finnish Agricultural Land Prices Using Generalised Additive Model," 165th Seminar, April 4-5, 2019, Berlin, Germany 288447, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Raffaele Giammetti, 2020. "Tariffs, domestic import substitution and trade diversion in input-output production networks: an exercise on Brexit," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 318-350, July.
    17. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    18. Reserve Bank of India RBI, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impact of Demonetisation: A Preliminary Assessment," Working Papers id:11665, eSocialSciences.
    19. Ken Mayhew & Paul Anand, 0. "COVID-19 and the UK labour market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 215-224.
    20. Loayza,Norman V. & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 : A Primer for Developing Countries," Research and Policy Briefs 147291, The World Bank.
    21. Pedro Brinca & Joao B. Duarte & Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2020. "Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 31, May.
    22. Begg, Iain & Mushövel, Fabian, 2016. "The economic impact of brexit: jobs, growth and the public finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67008, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Benati, Luca, 2015. "The long-run Phillips curve: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 15-28.
    24. Mr. Jens R Clausen & Bianca Clausen, 2010. "Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?," IMF Working Papers 2010/052, International Monetary Fund.
    25. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–19571," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    26. Reserve Bank of India RBI, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impact of Demonetisation-A Preliminary Assessment," Working Papers id:11657, eSocialSciences.
    27. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    28. Ugyen Tenzin, 2019. "The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(1), pages 94-105, March.
    29. Muhammad Mustapha Abdullahi & Nor Aznin Bt Abu Bakar & Sallahuddin B. Hassan, 2016. "Debt Overhang versus Crowding Out Effects: Understanding the Impact of External Debts on Capital Formation in Theory," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 271-278.
    30. Johanna Posch & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 145-162, March.
    31. Nurudeen Abu, 2019. "Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: A Re-examination of the Phillips Curve and its Stability in Nigeria," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    32. Norman V. Loayza & Steven Pennings, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33540, The World Bank Group.
    33. Ken Mayhew & Paul Anand, 2020. "COVID-19 and the UK labour market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 215-224.
    34. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "The stability of the Phillips curve in India: Does the Lucas critique apply?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 528-539.
    35. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    36. Singh, B. Karan & Kanakaraj, A. & Sridevi, T.O., 2011. "Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-258, June.
    37. Lenoël, Cyrille & Macqueen, Rory & Young, Garry, 2020. "Prospects For The Uk Economy," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 253, pages 4-34, August.
    38. Arno Hantzsche & Amit Kara & Garry Young, 2019. "The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 5-20, January.
    39. Dane Bax & Temesgen Zewotir & Delia North, 2021. "Appraising residential property using hierarchical generalised additive models," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 198-212, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter, 2020. "Horrible Trade-offs in a Pandemic: Lockdowns, Transfers, Fiscal Space, and Compliance," CID Working Papers 382, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 25-69, january-j.
    4. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    5. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    6. Kamal, Khnd. Md. Mostafa, 2014. "Impact of Imported Intermediate Goods on Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from India," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(04), pages 53-63, December.
    7. Sunil Paul & Sartaj Rasool Rather & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Money and Inflation: Evidence from P-Star Model," Working Papers 2015-115, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    8. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    9. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    11. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    12. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "Sectoral inflationary dynamics: cross-country evidence on the open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(1), pages 75-101, February.
    13. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    14. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Lockdown Policies: A Macrodynamic Perspective for Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8465, CESifo.
    15. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: Mobility and resilience via remote work," CAMA Working Papers 2021-71, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Zheng, Chen & Zhang, Junru, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the efficiency of microfinance institutions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 407-423.
    18. Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    19. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher, 2022. "Inflation dynamics in an emerging market: The case of South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 262-271.
    20. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Kaustav Kanti Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu, 2021. "Nonlinear relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty in India: New evidence from a bivariate threshold model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 469-493, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:73-:d:550064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.