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A Model To Forecast The Monthly Inflation In Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Pelinescu, Elena

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting)

  • Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

This paper is organized in two parts, the presentation of the model of inflation for Romania, and the results of different scenarios starting from the base model. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for the simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in Romania, with a focus on the short-term impact of the changes in money, foreign exchange and wage policies and controlled prices, as well as the impact of the external shocks, such as the international oil price, on the future inflation in Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2005. "A Model To Forecast The Monthly Inflation In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(3), pages 37-58.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:2:y:2005:i:3:p:37-58
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; price; forecasting and simulation; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • P22 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Prices

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