Conservatism in Corporate Valuation
Using a CCAPM based risk adjustment model, consistent with general asset pricing theory, I perform corporate valuations of a large sample of stocks listed on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. The model is different from the standard CAPM model in the sense that it discounts forecasted residual income for risk in the numerator rather than trough the cost of equity, in the denominator. Further, the risk adjustment is based on assumptions about the time series properties of residual income return and consumption rather than historical returns. I compare the pricing performance of the model with the standard CAPM based valuation model, both considering the absolute valuation errors and an investment setting where simple investment strategies are made based on the results of the respective models. The CCAPM model performs substantially better than the CAPM based model when comparing absolute valuation errors. Both models are able to explain abnormal returns impressively well, when constructing investment strategies, but also in this setting the CCAPM model outperforms the CAPM model in most dimensions. I further show that the standard CAPM and the Fama-French 3 factor based approaches to risk adjustment substantially overestimate the cost of risk. This "error" more than offsets yet another "error", committed when using analyst's forecasts of long-term growth which are 3-4 times higher than what can be considered reasonable. Using the CCAPM approach to valuation, the results imply that investors are very conservative in their valuation of long-term value generation and very conservative in risk adjusting future value generation.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
- Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. " Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
- Cooper, Ian A. & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2006.
"The value of tax shields IS equal to the present value of tax shields,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 215-225, July.
- Cooper, Ian A. & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2005. "The value of tax shields IS equal to the present value of tax shields," Discussion Papers 2005/14, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
- Cooper, Ian & Nyborg, Kjell G, 2005. "The Value of Tax Shields IS Equal to the Present Value of Tax Shields," CEPR Discussion Papers 5182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bjorn N. Jorgensen & Yong Gyu Lee & Yong Keun Yoo, 2011. "The Valuation Accuracy of Equity Value Estimates Inferred from Conventional Empirical Implementations of the Abnormal Earnings Growth Model: US Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3-4), pages 446-471, 04.
- Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
- Christian Pedersen & Stephen Satchell, 2002. "On the foundation of performance measures under asymmetric returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 217-223.
- Stephen H. Penman, 2010. "Financial Forecasting, Risk and Valuation: Accounting for the Future," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(2), pages 211-228.
- Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
- Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
- Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "The value of tax shields is NOT equal to the present value of tax shields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 145-165, July.
- Fernández , Pablo, 2002. "The value of tax shields is not equal to the present value of tax shields," IESE Research Papers D/459, IESE Business School.
- Shumway, Tyler, 1997. " The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
- Rogerson, William P, 1997. "Intertemporal Cost Allocation and Managerial Investment Incentives: A Theory Explaining the Use of Economic Value Added as a Performance Measure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 770-795, August.
- Stoughton, Neal M. & Zechner, Josef, 2007. "Optimal capital allocation using RAROC(TM) and EVA(R)," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 312-342, July.
- Stoughton, Neal & Zechner, Josef, 2004. "Optimal Capital Allocation Using RAROC(tm) and EVA," CEPR Discussion Papers 4169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119-119.
- Jonathan B. Berk, 2000. "Sorting Out Sorts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 407-427, 02.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Campbell, John & Cochrane, John H., 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Jing Liu, 2002. "Equity Valuation Using Multiples," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 135-172, 03.
- Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
- Tim Baldenius & Stefan Reichelstein, 2005. "Incentives for Efficient Inventory Management: The Role of Historical Cost," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1032-1045, July.
- Javier Estrada, 2006. "Downside Risk in Practice," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 18(1), pages 117-125.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " The CAPM Is Wanted, Dead or Alive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1947-1958, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2011-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.