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The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market : Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities

Author

Listed:
  • Funke, Michael
  • Loermann, Julius
  • Tsang, Andrew

Abstract

In line with the deepening of the derivative foreign-exchange market in Hong Kong, we recover risk-neutral probability densities for future US dollar/offshore renminbi exchange rates as implied by exchange rate option prices. The risk-neutral densities (RND) approach is shown to be useful in analyzing market sentiment and risk aversion in the renminbi market. We include a forecasting exercise that confirms market participants were able to forecast the shape of the actual densities correctly for short horizons, even if their exact location could not be determined.

Suggested Citation

  • Funke, Michael & Loermann, Julius & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market : Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2017_015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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