Too Many Cooks? The German Joint Diagnosis and Its Production
The “Gemeinschaftsdiagnose” [Joint Diagnosis (JD)] is the most influential semi-annual mac-roeconomic forecast in Germany. Jointly produced by up to six institutes, its accuracy as well as the large number of involved participants is often criticised. This study examines the JD’s growth and inflation forecasts from 1970 to 2007, including most of the contributions of the forecasts submitted by the five institutes at the start of the JD. Four questions are addressed: (i) Are these forecasts unbiased and efficient? (ii) How do results change if we presume an asymmetric loss function? (iii) Are any of the institutes more accurate than the JD? Are five/six institutes necessary and at what cost? (iv) Do the institutes make strategic forecasts to influence the JD forecast? Results show that there is no strong evidence of bias or inefficiency of the institutes’ forecasts and no evidence of asymmetric loss functions. Five institutes are not necessary, but it is very hard to predict the redundant institutes; however, the loss of accu-racy by employing only two is small.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/|
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ulrich Fritsche)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.