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When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

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  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Maximilian Goebel
  • Philippe Goulet Coulombe
  • Boyuan Zhang

Abstract

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Maximilian Goebel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume," Papers 2203.04040, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2203.04040
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    1. A. Vaks & A. J. Mason & S. F. M. Breitenbach & A. M. Kononov & A. V. Osinzev & M. Rosensaft & A. Borshevsky & O. S. Gutareva & G. M. Henderson, 2020. "Palaeoclimate evidence of vulnerable permafrost during times of low sea ice," Nature, Nature, vol. 577(7789), pages 221-225, January.
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    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2023. "Climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Sarah W. Cooley & Jonathan C. Ryan & Laurence C. Smith & Chris Horvat & Brodie Pearson & Brigt Dale & Amanda H. Lynch, 2020. "Coldest Canadian Arctic communities face greatest reductions in shorefast sea ice," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(6), pages 533-538, June.
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    7. Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Marika Holland & Jennifer Kay & James Malanik & Andrew Barrett, 2012. "The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1005-1027, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. B. Cooper Boniece & Lajos Horv'ath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance," Papers 2310.04853, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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