A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: application to South Africa
Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, but this fact is ignored in most work on consumer price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates, or CPIX) for South Africa are modeled separately and forecast, four quarters ahead. The method combines equilibrium correction models in a rich multivariate form with the use of stochastic trends estimated by the Kalman filter to capture structural breaks and institutional change. This research is of considerable practical use for monetary policy, allowing sectoral sources of inflation to be identified. Aggregating the forecasts of the components with appropriate weights from the overall index, potentially indicates the gains to be made in forecasting the idiosyncratic sectoral behaviour of prices, over forecasting the overall consumer price index.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: +44-(0)1865 281447
Web page: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996.
"Inflation and the Distribution of Price Changes,"
NBER Working Papers
5793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, September.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000.
"Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 509-544, September.
- Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 2656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and corporate saving in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-21, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1996. "Macroeconomics and Methodology," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 105-120, Winter.
- Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004.
"A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996.
"Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
447, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johannes Fedderke & Chandana Kularatne & Martine Mariotti, 2005.
"Mark-up Pricing in South African Industry,"
01, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- J.W. Fedderke & E. Schaling, 2005. "Modelling Inflation In South Africa: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 79-92, 03.
- Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 135-149.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2004-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Payne)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.