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Nowcasting GDP growth in Russia with an incomplete dataset: A factor model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nurdaulet Abilov

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

  • Aizhan Bolatbayeva

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

Abstract

In this paper, we use the modified expectation-maximization algorithm of Banbura and Modugno (2014) to estimate a factor model using an incomplete and mixed-frequency dataset for Russia. We estimate and check the forecast accuracy of factor models that differ in the number of factors, the lag structure of the factors, and the presence of autocorrelation in the idiosyncratic component. We choose the best model using the root mean squared forecast error and use the model to compute news contributions to forecast revisions of GDP growth in Russia around crisis periods. We find that the benchmark model with a medium-size dataset and four factors outperforms all other versions of the factor model, simple AR(1) and random walk models. The news contributions to GDP growth revisions around economic downturns in Russia show that the benchmark factor model is extremely good at capturing the impact of new data releases on GDP growth revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurdaulet Abilov & Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP growth in Russia with an incomplete dataset: A factor model approach," NAC Analytica Working Paper 18, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Feb 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:18
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor model; EM-algorithm; Nowcasting; Business cycle index; Russia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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