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Emissions and abatement costs for the passenger cars sector in Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Halkos, George
  • Kevork, Ilias
  • Tziourtzioumis, Chris

Abstract

In this paper we present for Greece a methodology for predicting emissions and estimating the abatement costs of the transport sector, focusing our analysis on passenger cars. In the first section we estimate for the period 2000-2030 the annual emissions of the most important pollutants using the Tier 2 method. For the application of this method, we forecast the number of passenger cars and the annual average distance driven per car technology, fuel type and displacement category. In particular, the forecasts for the number of cars are obtained by fitting trend and double exponential smoothing models to the available data from 2000 to 2013. Necessary adjustments to the number of cars of the latest technologies are made for each year such that the sum of predictions equals to the estimated total number of cars obtained through an econometric model that relates the changes in the number of cars and the changes in GDP (at current prices). In the second part of the study we estimate the total pollution cost at 2013 prices for four alternative scenarios, where for each scenario we assume changes for the period 2013-2030 to the composition of the fleet of passenger cars for the benefit of either gasoline or diesel or hybrids or LPG cars. The costs analyzed are capital, operation and maintenance and fuel.

Suggested Citation

  • Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias & Tziourtzioumis, Chris, 2014. "Emissions and abatement costs for the passenger cars sector in Greece," MPRA Paper 60197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60197
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias & Galani, Georgia & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2014. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in Greece," MPRA Paper 59975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234.
    3. George Halkos & Ilias Kevork, 2005. "A comparison of alternative unit root tests," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 45-60.
    4. Halkos, George E. & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2009. "Economic efficiency and growth in the EU enlargement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 847-862, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias & Tziourtzioumis, Chris, 2014. "Greenhouse gas emissions and marginal abatement cost curves for the road transport in Greece," MPRA Paper 61032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport sector; passenger cars; tier 2 method; abatement costs; emissions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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