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Genesis and Evolution of Market Share Predictive Models

  • Marusia Ivanova

The time borders in market share predictive modeling evolution have been set as a result of a critical perusal of the leading scientific research papers, which cover the period from 1950 to our days. Five evolution stages have been identified: (1) Stage of origin of market share predictive models: 1951-1965; (2) Stage of realistic market share predictive models: 1966-1969; (3) Stage of logically consistent market share predictive models: 1970-1988; (4) Stage of maturity in market share predictive modeling: 1989-2004; (5) Stage of analytical reengineering of market share predictive modeling: after 2004. The types of models representative of every evolution stage, as well as some of their advantages and disadvantages, have been discussed.

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Article provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 117-148

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Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2007:i:2:p:117-148
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  1. Paul Farris & James Olver & Cornelis De Kluyver, 1989. "The Relationship Between Distribution and Market Share," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 107-128.
  2. Danaher, Peter J., 1994. "Comparing naive with econometric market share models when competitors' actions are forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 287-294, September.
  3. Philip Kotler, 1965. "Competitive Strategies for New Product Marketing Over the Life Cycle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages B104-B119, December.
  4. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations About Market Evolution and Stationarity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G109-G121.
  5. David J. Reibstein & Paul W. Farris, 1995. "Market Share and Distribution: A Generalization, a Speculation, and Some Implications," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G190-G202.
  6. Gregory S. Carpenter & Lee G. Cooper & Dominique M. Hanssens & David F. Midgley, 1988. "Modeling Asymmetric Competition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 393-412.
  7. Brodie, Roderick J. & Bonfrer, Andre, 1994. "Conditions when market share models are useful for forecasting: further empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 277-285, September.
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