IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v50y2004i12_supplementp1854-1860.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comments on ÜModels and Managers: The Concept of a Decision CalculusÝ

Author

Listed:
  • John D. C. Little

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142)

Abstract

Managerial models for practice have undergone remarkable growth in the past 50 years. My paper on decision calculus, published in 1970, was both a progress report and a prescription for improvement. This commentary describes why I wrote the paper, my perception of why it has been considered influential, and a brief overview of what has happened since. The overview starts by tracing the trends and ideas of the 1960s into the 1970s. The 1970s blend easily into the era of decision support systems (DSS). Starting late in the decade and still continuing, DSSs have evolved rapidly due to an explosion of data, increased computer power, and advances in modeling methods. I review highlights of this evolution from the point of view of managerial models, giving special emphasis to marketing, since that has been my window on this world. The good news is that more managers than ever are using models. The bad news is that many managers do not even realize they are using models! (But we should ask whether this is really bad.) The commentary concludes with thoughts about the future of managerial models. The selection of my paper as one of the most influential in the first 50 years of Management Science was a significant honor for which I am grateful. I take it as an indication by the members of INFORMS of the importance to our field of the issues addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. C. Little, 2004. "Comments on ÜModels and Managers: The Concept of a Decision CalculusÝ," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1854-1860, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:50:y:2004:i:12_supplement:p:1854-1860
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0310
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0310?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John R. Hauser & Steven M. Shugan, 2008. "Defensive Marketing Strategies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 88-110, 01-02.
    2. John D. C. Little, 1975. "BRANDAID: A Marketing-Mix Model, Part 1: Structure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 628-655, August.
    3. Jerry Wind & Paul E. Green & Douglas Shifflet & Marsha Scarbrough, 1989. "Courtyard by Marriott : Designing a Hotel Facility with Consumer-Based Marketing Models," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 25-47, February.
    4. Bernard Pras & Gilles Laurent & Gary L. Lilien, 1994. "Research Traditions in Marketing," Post-Print halshs-00150675, HAL.
    5. Magid M. Abraham & Leonard M. Lodish, 1993. "An Implemented System for Improving Promotion Productivity Using Store Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 248-269.
    6. Leeflang, P.S.H. & Wittink, Dick R., 2000. "Building models for marketing decisions: past, present and future," Research Report 00F20, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3445 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:dgr:rugsom:00f20 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Peter M. Guadagni & John D. C. Little, 1983. "A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 203-238.
    10. Berend Wierenga & Gerrit H. Van Bruggen & Richard Staelin, 1999. "The Success of Marketing Management Support Systems," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 196-207.
    11. Glen L. Urban & John R. Hauser & John H. Roberts, 1990. "Prelaunch Forecasting of New Automobiles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 401-421, April.
    12. Leonard M. Lodish, 1971. "Callplan: An Interactive Salesman's Call Planning System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages 25-40, December.
    13. John D. C. Little, 1970. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(8), pages 466-485, April.
    14. David B. Montgomery & Alvin J. Silk & Carlos E. Zaragoza, 1971. "A Multiple-Product Sales Force Allocation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages 3-24, December.
    15. Leonard M. Lodish & Ellen Curtis & Michael Ness & M. Kerry Simpson, 1988. "Sales Force Sizing and Deployment Using a Decision Calculus Model at Syntex Laboratories," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 5-20, February.
    16. Frank M. Bass & Kent Gordon & Teresa L. Ferguson & Mary Lou Githens, 2001. "DIRECTV: Forecasting Diffusion of a New Technology Prior to Product Launch," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 82-93, June.
    17. John D. C. Little & Leonard M. Lodish, 1969. "A Media Planning Calculus," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35, February.
    18. John D. C. Little, 1975. "BRANDAID: A Marketing-Mix Model, Part 2: Implementation, Calibration, and Case Study," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 656-673, August.
    19. Randolph E. Bucklin & Sunil Gupta, 1999. "Commercial Use of UPC Scanner Data: Industry and Academic Perspectives," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 247-273.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claassen, G.D.H., 2014. "Mixed integer (0–1) fractional programming for decision support in paper production industry," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suresh Divakar & Brian T. Ratchford & Venkatesh Shankar, 2005. "Practice Prize Article—: A Multichannel, Multiregion Sales Forecasting Model and Decision Support System for Consumer Packaged Goods," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 334-350, July.
    2. Berend Wierenga & Gerrit H. Van Bruggen & Richard Staelin, 1999. "The Success of Marketing Management Support Systems," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 196-207.
    3. Jorge Silva-Risso & Irina Ionova, 2008. "—A Nested Logit Model of Product and Transaction-Type Choice for Planning Automakers' Pricing and Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 545-566, 07-08.
    4. Wierenga, Berend, 2011. "Managerial decision making in marketing: The next research frontier," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 89-101.
    5. Roberts, John H. & Kayande, Ujwal & Stremersch, Stefan, 2014. "From academic research to marketing practice: Exploring the marketing science value chain," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 127-140.
    6. Lilien, Gary L. & Rangaswamy, Arvind & van Bruggen, Gerrit H. & Wierenga, Berend, 2002. "Bridging the marketing theory-practice gap with marketing engineering," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 111-121, February.
    7. Gary L. Lilien & John H. Roberts & Venkatesh Shankar, 2013. "Effective Marketing Science Applications: Insights from the ISMS-MSI Practice Prize Finalist Papers and Projects," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 229-245, March.
    8. Leeflang, Peter, 2011. "Paving the way for “distinguished marketing”," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 76-88.
    9. Marusia Ivanova, 2007. "Genesis and Evolution of Market Share Predictive Models," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 117-148.
    10. Darmon, Rene Y., 2002. "Salespeople's management of customer information: Impact on optimal territory and sales force sizes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-176, February.
    11. George, Morris & Kumar, V. & Grewal, Dhruv, 2013. "Maximizing Profits for a Multi-Category Catalog Retailer," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 374-396.
    12. R C Hanna & P D Berger & L J Abendroth, 2005. "Optimizing time limits in retail promotions: an email application," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(1), pages 15-24, January.
    13. Harikesh S. Nair & Sanjog Misra & William J. Hornbuckle IV & Ranjan Mishra & Anand Acharya, 2017. "Big Data and Marketing Analytics in Gaming: Combining Empirical Models and Field Experimentation," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(5), pages 699-725, September.
    14. Jorge Silva-Risso & William V. Shearin & Irina Ionova & Alexei Khavaev & Deirdre Borrego, 2008. "Chrysler and J. D. Power: Pioneering Scientific Price Customization in the Automobile Industry," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 26-39, February.
    15. David Godes, 2003. "In the Eye of the Beholder: An Analysis of the Relative Value of a Top Sales Rep Across Firms and Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 161-187, May.
    16. Leonard M. Lodish, 2001. "Building Marketing Models that Make Money," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 45-55, June.
    17. Dapeng Cui & David Curry, 2005. "Prediction in Marketing Using the Support Vector Machine," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 595-615, January.
    18. Elmar Kiesling & Markus Günther & Christian Stummer & Lea Wakolbinger, 2012. "Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 183-230, June.
    19. Davis, Joseph G. & Sundaram, David, 1995. "PETAPS: A prototype decision support system for consumer product marketing and promotion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 247-256, December.
    20. Donald G. Morrison & Jagmohan S. Raju, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: The Marketing Department in Management Science: Its History, Contributions, and the Future," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(4), pages 425-428, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:50:y:2004:i:12_supplement:p:1854-1860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.