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Puzzle solver

  • Christian, Mueller-Kademann

This paper presents a model for asset markets with a subjectively rational solution for the price of the traded asset. Traders cannot act objectively rational and an increase in the number of traders does not enlarge the information set neccessary for determining the “true” price. Consequentely, many well-known “puzzles” vanish as there is no objective truth to which data could live up. An empirical test is conducted which demonstrates the relevance of the argument across time, space, and markets.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19852/1/MPRA_paper_19852.pdf
File Function: original version
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19852.

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Date of creation: 15 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19852
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  1. Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1996. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Working Papers _005, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
  3. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  4. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
  6. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Salvatore, Dominick, 2005. "The euro-dollar exchange rate defies prediction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 455-464, June.
  9. Verma, Rahul & Verma, Priti, 2007. "Noise trading and stock market volatility," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-243, July.
  10. Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank.
  11. Tirole, Jean, 2002. "Rational irrationality: Some economics of self-management," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 633-655, May.
  12. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  14. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  15. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The Microstructure of the Euro Money Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Reshmaan N. Hussam & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 924-37, June.
  18. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," Experimental 0502002, EconWPA.
  19. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2008. "Does trading volume really explain stock returns volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 216-235, July.
  20. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
  21. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  22. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2003. "The impossibility of meaningful efficient market parameters in testing for the spot-forward relationship in foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 81-87, October.
  23. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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