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This paper presents a model for asset markets with a subjectively rational solution for the price of the traded asset. Traders cannot act objectively rational and an increase in the number of traders does not enlarge the information set neccessary for determining the “true” price. Consequentely, many well-known “puzzles” vanish as there is no objective truth to which data could live up. An empirical test is conducted which demonstrates the relevance of the argument across time, space, and markets.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19852.

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Date of creation: 15 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19852
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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2005. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Working Papers 122005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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  4. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andrés, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Working Paper Series 0080, European Central Bank.
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  7. Takatoshi Ito Richard K. Lyons and Michael T. Melvin., 1997. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-270, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2003. "The impossibility of meaningful efficient market parameters in testing for the spot-forward relationship in foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 81-87, October.
  9. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  12. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1427-1443, December.
  13. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2008. "Does trading volume really explain stock returns volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 216-235, July.
  14. T. Ane & L. Ureche-Rangau, 2008. "Does Trading Volume Really Explain Stock Returns Volatility ?," Post-Print hal-00260668, HAL.
  15. Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Verma, Rahul & Verma, Priti, 2007. "Noise trading and stock market volatility," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-243, July.
  17. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  18. Tirole, Jean, 2002. "Rational irrationality: Some economics of self-management," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 633-655, May.
  19. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  20. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
  21. Salvatore, Dominick, 2005. "The euro-dollar exchange rate defies prediction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 455-464, June.
  22. Reshmaan N. Hussam & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 924-37, June.
  23. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  24. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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