Radical uncertainty: Sources, manifestations and implications
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005.
"Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
- Mathias Drehmann & Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Experimental 0210001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 7, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Joerg & Roider, Andreas, 2003. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6zf5469f, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 25/2002, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
- Roider, Andreas & Mathias Drehmann & Jorg Oechssler, 2003. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 177, Royal Economic Society.
- Mathias Drehmann & Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Finance 0210005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005.
"Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1427-1443, December.
- Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," Experimental 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ben Omrane, Walid & Heinen, Andréas, 2009. "Is there any common knowledge news in the Euro/Dollar market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 656-670, October.
- Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002.
"Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
- Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & University of Aarhus, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Realised Volatility and Its Use in Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models," Economics Series Working Papers 71, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001.
"The microstructure of the euro money market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andrés, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Working Paper Series 80, European Central Bank.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The Microstructure of the Euro Money Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Reshmaan N. Hussam & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 924-937, June.
- Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
- Carlson, John A. & Lo, Melody, 2006. "One minute in the life of the DM/US$: Public news in an electronic market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1090-1102, November.
- Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2008.
"Does trading volume really explain stock returns volatility?,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 216-235, July.
- Thierry Ané & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Does trading volume really explain stock returns volatility?," Working Papers 2004-FIN-02, IESEG School of Management.
- T. Ane & L. Ureche-Rangau, 2008. "Does Trading Volume Really Explain Stock Returns Volatility ?," Post-Print hal-00260668, HAL.
- Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008.
"Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
- Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank.
- Sarno, Lucio & Rime, Dagfinn & Akram, Farooq, 2008. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2006. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," SIFR Research Report Series 42, Institute for Financial Research.
- Hong, Harrison & Yu, Jialin, 2009. "Gone fishin': Seasonality in trading activity and asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 672-702, November.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1111-1130 is not listed on IDEAS
- Richard K. Lyons, 2002.
"Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools,"
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 51-69.
- Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- David Dequech, 2011. "Uncertainty: A Typology and Refinements of Existing Concepts," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 621-640.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Christian, Mueller-Kademann, 2009. "Puzzle solver," MPRA Paper 19852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010.
"Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
- Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2007. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Working Paper 2007/02, Norges Bank.
- Sarno, Lucio & Rime, Dagfinn & Sojli, Elvira, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
- Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Graversen, Svend Erik & Jacod, Jean & Shephard, Neil, 2006.
"Limit Theorems For Bipower Variation In Financial Econometrics,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 677-719, August.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Sven Erik Graversen & Jean Jacod & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Limit theorems for bipower variation in financial econometrics," Economics Papers 2005-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Sven Erik Graversen & Jean Jacod & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Limit theorems for bipower variation in financial econometrics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe09, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011.
"Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
- Tim Bollerslev & Michael S. Gibson & Hao Zhou, 2005. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Bollerslev & Michael S. Gibson & Hao Zhou, 2004. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Bollerslev & Michael Gibson & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities," CREATES Research Papers 2007-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2017-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2016. "Price Dynamics and Consumption Smoothing in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 71631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2009.
"Realized Volatility Risk,"
CARF F-Series
CARF-F-197, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Jan 2010.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2010. "Realized Volatility Risk," KIER Working Papers 753, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2010. "Realized Volatility Risk," Working Papers in Economics 10/26, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2013. "Realized Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-092/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2013. "Realized volatility risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-26, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2009. "Realized Volatility Risk," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-693, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Corgnet, Brice & Hernán-González, Roberto & Kujal, Praveen, 2020.
"On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán-González & Praveen Kujal, 2018. "On Booms That Never Bust: Ambiguity in Experimental Asset Markets with Bubbles," Working Papers 1825, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
- Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán-Gonzalez & Praveen Kujal, 2018. "On Booms That Never Bust: Ambiguity in Experimental Asset Markets with Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01898435, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán-González & Praveen Kujal, 2018. "On Booms That Never Bust: Ambiguity in Experimental Asset Markets with Bubbles," Working Papers 18-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán-Gonzalez & Praveen Kujal, 2020. "On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles," Post-Print halshs-03031385, HAL.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2014.
"Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk,"
JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-30, June.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2014. "Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-16, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2014. "Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-075/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2014. "Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk," Working Papers in Economics 14/20, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2022.
"Informational Price Cascades and Non-Aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets,"
Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 388-407, November.
- Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2011. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 1102, Xiamen Unversity, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Finance and Economics Experimental Laboratory, revised 14 Apr 2011.
- Shachat, Jason & Srivinasan, Anand, 2011. "Informational price cascades and non-aggregation of asymmetric information in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 30308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2013. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Ozcan Ceylan, 2015.
"Limited information-processing capacity and asymmetric stock correlations,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1031-1039, June.
- Ceylan, Ozcan, 2010. "Limited Information-Processing Capacity and Asymmetric Stock Correlations," MPRA Paper 61587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2018.
"Cognitive bubbles,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 132-153, March.
- Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, "undated". "Cognitive Bubbles," BDPEMS Working Papers 2015006, Berlin School of Economics.
- Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2015. "Cognitive bubbles," Economics Working Papers 1464, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2015. "Cognitive Bubbles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Meissner, Thomas & Bosch-Domènech, Antoni, 2015. "Cognitive bubbles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Huan Xie & Jipeng Zhang, 2016.
"Bubbles and experience: An experiment with a steady inflow of new traders,"
Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1349-1373, April.
- Huan Xie & Jipeng Zhang, 2012. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment with a Steady Inflow of New Traders," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-01, CIRANO.
- Huan Xie & Jipeng Zhang, 2012. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment with a Steady Inflow of New Traders," Working Papers 12001, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
- Timothy N. Cason & Anya Samek, 2015. "Learning through passive participation in asset market bubbles," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(2), pages 170-181, December.
- Neil Shephard & Dacheng Xiu, 2012.
"Econometric analysis of multivariate realised QML: efficient positive semi-definite estimators of the covariation of equity prices,"
Economics Series Working Papers
604, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Neil Shephard & Dacheng Xiu, 2012. "Econometric analysis of multivariate realised QML: efficient positive semi-definite estimators of the covariation of equity prices," Economics Papers 2012-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen Cheung & Stefan Palan, 2012.
"Two heads are less bubbly than one: team decision-making in an experimental asset market,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 15(3), pages 373-397, September.
- Cheung, Stephen L. & Palan, Stefan, 2009. "Two Heads Are Less Bubbly than One: Team Decision-Making in an Experimental Asset Market," IZA Discussion Papers 4507, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Cheung, Stephen L. & Palan, Stefan, 2011. "Two heads are less bubbly than one: Team decision-making in an experimental asset market," Working Papers 2011-08, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Georg Strasser, 2013.
"On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise: A Financial Economic Approach,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1304-1337.
- Francis X. Diebold & Georg H. Strasser, 2008. "On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise: A Financial Economic Approach," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 693, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Apr 2012.
- Francis X. Diebold & Georg Strasser, 2010. "On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise: A Financial Economic Approach," NBER Working Papers 16469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
More about this item
Keywords
rational expectations; uncertainty; subjectivity;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-HME-2015-06-20 (Heterodox Microeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2015-06-20 (Operations Research)
- NEP-PKE-2015-06-20 (Post Keynesian Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.