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Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions Subject to Monotonicity Constraints: Estimation and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Tae-Hwy Lee

    () (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)

  • Yundong Tu

    () (Peking University, Beijing, China)

  • Aman Ullah

    () (University of California, Riverside)

Abstract

This paper considers nonparametric and semiparametric regression models subject to monotonicity constraint. We use bagging as an alternative approach to Hall and Huang (2001). Asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators and forecasts are established. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to show their finite sample performance. An application to predicting equity premium is taken for illustration. We introduce a new forecasting evaluation criterion based on the second order stochastic dominance in the size of forecast errors and compare models over different sizes of forecast errors. Imposing monotonicity constraint can mitigate the chance of making large size forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Tae-Hwy Lee & Yundong Tu & Aman Ullah, 2014. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions Subject to Monotonicity Constraints: Estimation and Forecasting," Working Papers 201404, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201404
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    File URL: https://economics.ucr.edu/repec/ucr/wpaper/201404.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2005. "Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 735-765.
    2. V. Chernozhukov & I. Fernández-Val & A. Galichon, 2009. "Improving point and interval estimators of monotone functions by rearrangement," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(3), pages 559-575.
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    4. Sokbae Lee & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Testing for Stochastic Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 585-602, March.
    5. Carlos Martins-Filho & Santosh Mishra & Aman Ullah, 2008. "A Class of Improved Parametrically Guided Nonparametric Regression Estimators," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-6), pages 542-573.
    6. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    7. Pang Du & Christopher F. Parmeter & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2012. "Nonparametric Kernel Regression with Multiple Predictors and Multiple Shape Constraints," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-08, McMaster University.
    8. Härdle, Wolfgang & Horowitz, Joel L. & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 2001. "Bootstrap methods for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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    10. Delgado, Miguel A. & Escanciano, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Distribution-free tests of stochastic monotonicity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 68-75.
    11. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    13. Henderson, Daniel J. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2009. "Imposing Economic Constraints in Nonparametric Regression: Survey, Implementation and Extension," IZA Discussion Papers 4103, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Large Sample Sieve Estimation of Semi-Nonparametric Models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 76 Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:taf:emetrv:v:36:y:2017:i:6-9:p:588-598 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2015. "Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic loss distance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 37-38.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic error distance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 588-598, October.
    4. repec:eee:econom:v:211:y:2019:i:1:p:206-242 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:taf:emetrv:v:36:y:2017:i:6-9:p:988-1006 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local monotonicity; Bagging; Asymptotic mean squared errors; Second order stochastic dominance; Equity premium prediction.;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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