Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy
This study evaluates forecasting performance of a large-scale factor model developed in Siliverstovs and Kholodilin (2012) in a genuine ex ante forecasting exercise. We perform our forecast of GDP growth in Switzerland in real time using real-time data vintages collected at weekly frequency. This allows us to monitor how newly released economic and financial data influence our forecasts and hence capture prevailing tendencies in current course of economic development.
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