Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach
In microsimulation literature a limited number of models are provided with a module aimed at analyzing and projecting the evolution of private wealth over time. However, this issue appears crucial in order to get a comprehensive evaluation of the likely distributional effects of institutional reforms adopted to cope with population ageing. In this work we describe the implementation in the Italian dynamic micro simulation model CAPP_DYN of a new module in which household’s savings and asset allocation are modelled. In particular, our efforts are addressed at accounting for some possible behavioural responses to pension reforms in household savings. To this end, we rely on an approximate life cycle structural framework for estimating saving behaviour, while adopting the traditional stochastic micro simulation approach for assets allocation. In line with Ando and Nicoletti Altimari (2004), we emphasize the role of lifetime economic resources in households’ consumption decisions, yet we further account for internal habit formation and subjective expectations on pension outcomes in the econometric stage. In addition, we model intergenerational transfers of private wealth in a probabilistic fashion. Despite possible saving responses to pension reforms, simulated results for the period 2008-2050 suggest a rising dispersion in saving propensity and intergenerational transfers received are largely responsible for the predicted increase in disposable income inequality in the next decades which, differently from the recent past, will also affect the group of elderly.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2010|
|Date of revision:||Nov 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.capp.unimore.it|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005.
"Estimating Life-Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement,"
NBER Working Papers
11163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005. "Estimating Life—Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement”," Working Papers wp099, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Giovanni D'Alessio & Ivan Faiella, 2002. "Non-response behaviour in the Bank of Italyï¿½s Survey of Household Income and Wealth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 462, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2008.
"The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data,"
563, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 13929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mod:cappmo:0073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sara Colombini)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.