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A Small Global Forecasting Model

Listed author(s):
  • David Rae
  • David Turner

This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The key variables – which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices – are driven by monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and world demand. The projections from the model are used as a starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model with a particular focus on the impact of global linkages and the transmission of influences between regions ... Ce document décrit le nouveau petit modèle global de prévision pour les trois principales régions de l'OCDE : les États-Unis, la zone euro et le Japon. Les variables-clés, qui incluent la production, l'inflation, la balance commerciale et les prix d'importation, sont déterminées par la politique fiscale et monétaire, les taux de change et la demande mondiale. Les prévisions du modèle sont utilisées comme un point de depart pour stimuler la dicusssion lors des premières étapes de l'exercice de prévision de l'OCDE. Ce modèle est essentiellement un modèle de demande qui se concentre particulièrement sur l'impact des liens globaux et sur la transmission des influences entre regions ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/628640803664
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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 286.

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Date of creation: 08 Feb 2001
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:286-en
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  1. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
  2. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Simple Estimated Euro Area Model With Rational Expectations And Nominal Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 187, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
  4. Keiko Murata & Dave Turner & David Rae & Laurence Le Fouler, 2000. "Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations: A System Estimation Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 235, OECD Publishing.
  5. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  6. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
  7. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
  8. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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