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Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations: A System Estimation Approach

  • Keiko Murata
  • Dave Turner
  • David Rae
  • Laurence Le Fouler

International trade is a principle transmission mechanism by which developments in one country can have repercussions in others and how it is modelled is an important part of any multi-country model. This paper describes recent estimation work carried out by the OECD, which respecifies and updates the equations which determine manufactures export volumes in the OECD INTERLINK model. An important feature of this estimation work is that the relevant equations are estimated as a consistent system, allowing data acceptable parameter restrictions to be imposed across countries. For a number of countries and regions allowance is also made for the possible influence of supply-side factors on market share performance over and above that explained by changes in price competitiveness, using non-linear trend variables. The paper reports both estimation results and the simulation properties of the equations both in isolation and as part of corresponding country models and the fully linked ... Le commerce international est un mécanisme de transmission essentiel par lequel l'évolution de la situation dans un pays peut avoir des répercussions sur les autres pays, et la façon dont il est modélisé joue un rôle important dans tout modèle multinational. Ce document décrit le travail d'estimation récemment entrepris par l'OCDE qui modifie les specifications et met à jour les équations qui déterminent les volumes d'exportation de produits manufacturés dans le modèle INTERLINK de l'OCDE. Une caractéristique importante de ce travail est que les équations concernées sont estimées de façon à former un système cohérent, permettant de contraindre les coefficients à être identiques entre pays, lorsque les tests économétriques le justifient. Pour un certain nombre de pays et de régions, l'utilisation d'une tendance non linéaire permet aussi d'expliquer l'évolution de leurs parts de marchés par l'influence possible de facteurs d'offre, outre les effets dûs à l'évolution de leur ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 235.

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Date of creation: 06 Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:235-en
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