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Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations: A System Estimation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Keiko Murata
  • Dave Turner
  • David Rae
  • Laurence Le Fouler

Abstract

International trade is a principle transmission mechanism by which developments in one country can have repercussions in others and how it is modelled is an important part of any multi-country model. This paper describes recent estimation work carried out by the OECD, which respecifies and updates the equations which determine manufactures export volumes in the OECD INTERLINK model. An important feature of this estimation work is that the relevant equations are estimated as a consistent system, allowing data acceptable parameter restrictions to be imposed across countries. For a number of countries and regions allowance is also made for the possible influence of supply-side factors on market share performance over and above that explained by changes in price competitiveness, using non-linear trend variables. The paper reports both estimation results and the simulation properties of the equations both in isolation and as part of corresponding country models and the fully linked ... Le commerce international est un mécanisme de transmission essentiel par lequel l'évolution de la situation dans un pays peut avoir des répercussions sur les autres pays, et la façon dont il est modélisé joue un rôle important dans tout modèle multinational. Ce document décrit le travail d'estimation récemment entrepris par l'OCDE qui modifie les specifications et met à jour les équations qui déterminent les volumes d'exportation de produits manufacturés dans le modèle INTERLINK de l'OCDE. Une caractéristique importante de ce travail est que les équations concernées sont estimées de façon à former un système cohérent, permettant de contraindre les coefficients à être identiques entre pays, lorsque les tests économétriques le justifient. Pour un certain nombre de pays et de régions, l'utilisation d'une tendance non linéaire permet aussi d'expliquer l'évolution de leurs parts de marchés par l'influence possible de facteurs d'offre, outre les effets dûs à l'évolution de leur ...

Suggested Citation

  • Keiko Murata & Dave Turner & David Rae & Laurence Le Fouler, 2000. "Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations: A System Estimation Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 235, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:235-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/308783210136
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    Cited by:

    1. David Rae & David Turner, 2001. "A Small Global Forecasting Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 286, OECD Publishing.
    2. Hervé, Karine & Pain, Nigel & Richardson, Pete & Sédillot, Franck & Beffy, Pierre-Olivier, 2011. "The OECD's new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 589-601.
    3. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    4. Cepii & Cepremap, 2001. "MARMOTTE : a Multinational Model," Working Papers 2001-15, CEPII research center.
    5. Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm91, Sciences Po.
    6. Funke, Michael & Ruhwedel, Ralf, 2001. "Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 493-505.
    7. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    9. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive," Post-Print hal-01093016, HAL.
    10. Carton, Benjamin & Hervé, Karine, 2012. "Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1205-1214.
    11. Michael Hüther & Joachim Ahrens & Wilhelm Ruprecht & Michael Wolgast & Willi Leibfritz, 2003. "Weltwirtschaftliche Folgen des Terrorismus - mittel- und langfristige Perspektiven," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 3-20, January.
    12. Bruno Ducoudré & Éric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive. Quel pays en profitera le plus ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 221-253.
    13. Brieuc Monfort, 2008. "Chile; Trade Performance, Trade Liberalization, and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 08/128, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exports; forecasting and simulation; trade;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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