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Ein Modell für die Wirtschaftszweige der deutschen Volkswirtschaft: Das "MOGBOT" (Model of Germany's Branches of Trade)

Listed author(s):
  • Quaas, Georg
  • Köster, Robert

Das MOGBOT ist ein ökonometrisches Modell für die Zweige der deutschen Volkswirtschaft nach der Gliederung A*10 der Klassifikation WZ 2008 (ergänzt durch das Verarbeitende Gewerbe, Abschnitt C), die den Daten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen nach der Generalrevision 2011 zugrunde liegt. Den hier präsentierten vier Versionen des Modells liegen unterschiedliche ökonometrische Ansätze zugrunde. Es handelt sich um ein an die Zeitreihenanalyse angelehntes Modell (Version A), ein theoriegestütztes strukturelles Regressionsmodell in der Keynes/Klein-Tradition (Version B) und ein VEC-Modell ohne (C1) und mit (C2) exogenen Variablen. Da der Zweck des Modells in erster Linie in der Prognostik gesehen werden muss, wurden alle vier Versionen vor allem unter dem Gesichtspunkt getestet und bewertet, wie sie die (Vierteljahres-) Daten der letzten 18 Jahre mit Hilfe einer dynamischen Lösung des Modells erklären können. Dabei zeigt sich, dass das traditionelle Strukturmodell am besten zu den Daten passt, aber in zwei Fällen wenig plausible Prognosen produziert. Die Ergebnisse des VEC-Modells können verwendet werden, um diese Anomalien zu korrigieren.

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Paper provided by University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science in its series Working Papers with number 106.

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Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:106
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  1. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 76-85.
  2. Schäfer, Andreas & Schneider, Maik T., 2015. "Endogenous Enforcement Of Intellectual Property, North–South Trade, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(05), pages 1074-1115, July.
  3. Bretschger, Lucas & Steger, Thomas, 2013. "Globalization, The Volatility Of Intermediate Goods Prices, And Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 402-430, March.
  4. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar," CESifo Working Paper Series 2386, CESifo Group Munich.
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