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Ein Nelson-Winter-Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft

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  • Quaas, Georg

Abstract

Die von Nelson und Winter (1982) vorgeschlagene evolutorische Theorie hat hunderte Studien angeregt, die sich auf das Modell beziehen, das in ihrem Buch vorgestellt wird. Dieses Modell demonstrierte die empirische Gültigkeit eines neuen theoretischen und methodologischen Ansatzes auf dem Hintergrund der U.S.-amerikanischen Ökonomie und entsprechender Daten. Allerdings wurde nur in wenigen Studien versucht, das Modell durch Anwendung auf eine andere Volkswirtschaft zu replizieren. Das vorliegende Pepier stellt eine spezielle Implementation der umfangreichen, aber sehr speziellen Klasse von Nelson-Winter-Modellen dar, die die Evolution der deutschen Volkswirtschaft von 1970 bis 2004 nachvollzieht. Im Großen und Ganzen zeigt das Modell dasselbe Verhalten wie von Nelson und Winter berichtet. Vergleicht man es mit den üblichen ökonometrischen Modellen, so ist seine Leistungsfähigkeit fernab von zufriedenstellend. Aber das ist insofern nicht überraschend, als im Modell so wichtige Strukturen wie ein Markt für Güter und Dienstleistungen noch nicht implementiert worden sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Quaas, Georg, 2012. "Ein Nelson-Winter-Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft," Working Papers 112, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 76-85.
    2. Schäfer, Andreas & Schneider, Maik T., 2015. "Endogenous Enforcement Of Intellectual Property, North–South Trade, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(05), pages 1074-1115, July.
    3. Bretschger, Lucas & Steger, Thomas, 2013. "Globalization, The Volatility Of Intermediate Goods Prices, And Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 402-430, March.
    4. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar," CESifo Working Paper Series 2386, CESifo Group Munich.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nelson-Winter-Modell; Evolutorische Ökonomik; Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft; Nelson-Winter model; evolutionary theory; modeling the German economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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