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Effekte des Kapitalmarktzinses auf die Preis- und Produktivitätsentwicklung: Eine Analyse der deutschen Volkswirtschaft 1970-2014

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  • Quaas, Friedrun
  • Quaas, Georg

Abstract

Die EZB tut alles, um ihr Inflationsziel von 2 Prozent zu erreichen - bislang ohne Erfolg. Stattdessen machen sich unerwünschte Nebeneffekte breit. So wird vermutet, dass niedrige Zinssätze auf dem Kapitalmarkt der Produktivität einer Volkswirtschaft schaden. Auf die Frage, warum die Konsumenten-Preise trotz niedriger Zinssätze und eines wachsenden Geldangebotes nicht steigen, geben die Standardmodelle der neoklassischen Synthese eine eindeutige Antwort: Es fehlt die Nachfrage einer wachsenden Wirtschaft. Das neoklassische Paradigma ist jedoch offen für weitere, möglicherweise präzisere Antworten. So wird vermutet, dass die Inflation erst einsetzt, wenn der Konsum der Reichen ansteigt. Beide Hypothesen - der negative Einfluss niedriger Zinsen auf die Produktivität und der Luxuskonsum als Preistreiber - wären eine überraschende Bereicherung der makroökonomischen Theorie. Die langfristige Entwicklung der deutschen Volkswirtschaft bestätigt zwar die Aussagen der Standardmodelle, nicht aber jene Ergänzungen.

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  • Quaas, Friedrun & Quaas, Georg, 2016. "Effekte des Kapitalmarktzinses auf die Preis- und Produktivitätsentwicklung: Eine Analyse der deutschen Volkswirtschaft 1970-2014," Working Papers 144, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 76-85.
    2. Schäfer, Andreas & Schneider, Maik T., 2015. "Endogenous Enforcement Of Intellectual Property, North–South Trade, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 1074-1115, July.
    3. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "China's exchange rate impasse and the weak U.S. dollar," Working Papers 73, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E14 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Austrian; Evolutionary; Institutional
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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