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Globalization, the volatility of intermediate goods prices and economic growth

Abstract

We set up a dynamic stochastic model of a stylized economy comprising a final output sector (with traditional and modern firms) and an intermediate goods sector. It is shown that market integration reduces the volatility of the rate of return of capital invested in modern firms. The induced portfolio decision of households then leads to reallocation of capital from traditional to modern firms. Despite the presence of a reverse precautionary saving channel, the growth rate unambiguously increases due to the reallocation of capital. Empirical estimates for OECD countries confirm the theoretical results

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Paper provided by CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich in its series CER-ETH Economics working paper series with number 05/40.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:05-40
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Keywords: globalization; trade in intermediate goods; portfolio decisions; economic growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
  • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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  1. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1997. "The evolving external orientation of manufacturing: a profile of four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-81.
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1994. "Flexibility, investment, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 215-238, October.
  3. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
  4. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
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  6. Warnock, Francis E., 2002. "Home bias and high turnover reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 795-805, November.
  7. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
  9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 715-741.
  10. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
  11. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
  12. Jörn Kleinert, 2003. "Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing, Global Sourcing, or Increasing Importance of MNE Networks?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 464-482, 08.
  13. Steger, Thomas M., 2005. "Stochastic growth under Wiener and Poisson uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 311-316, March.
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Cited by:

  1. Andreas Schäfer & Thomas Steger, 2014. "Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 783-807, 09.
  2. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2006. "The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies," MPRA Paper 1040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Valente, Simone, 2008. "Intergenerational transfers, lifetime welfare, and resource preservation," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 53-78, February.
  4. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "Dynamically optimal R&D subsidization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 516-534.
  5. Simone Valente, 2006. "Trade, Envy and Growth: International Status Seeking in a Two-Country World," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/53, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  6. Quaas, Georg & Köster, Robert, 2012. "Ein Modell für die Wirtschaftszweige der deutschen Volkswirtschaft: Das "MOGBOT" (Model of Germany's Branches of Trade)," Working Papers 106, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  7. Casajus, André & Huettner, Frank, 2013. "Null players, solidarity, and the egalitarian Shapley values," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 58-61.
  8. Casajus, André, 2012. "Solidarity and fair taxation in TU games," Working Papers 111, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  9. Casajus, André, 2011. "Collusion, symmetry, and the Banzhaf value," Working Papers 99, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  10. Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2011. "Die Deutsche Wiedervereinigung und die europäische Schuldenkrise im Lichte der Theorie optimaler Währungsräume," Working Papers 94, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  11. Casajus, André & Hüttner, Frank, 2012. "Nullifying vs. dummifying players or nullified vs. dummified players: The difference between the equal division value and the equal surplus division value," Working Papers 110, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  12. Quaas, Georg, 2012. "Ein Nelson-Winter-Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft," Working Papers 112, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  13. Hoffmann, Andreas & Schnabl, Gunther, 2011. "Symmetrische Regeln und asymmetrisches Handeln in der Geld- und Finanzpolitik," Working Papers 95, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

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