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"How Is The Stock Market Doing?" Using Absence Of Arbitrage To Measure Stock Market Performance



    (Faculty of Business Administration, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada)


    (Faculty of Business Administration, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada)


This paper provides a methodology for measuring stock market performance based on the restrictions provided by absence of arbitrage in security prices. Under the null hypothesis that the aggregate cumulative dividend-price process follows a geometric Brownian motion, a closed form related to the inter-temporal marginal rate of substitution is derived and empirically evaluated. The stock market performance measure is based on the level of risk adjustment required to compare the value of the stock index at the starting point with the cumulative interest rate deflated value at any given point in the time series. The paper concludes with empirical tests for the martingale property of the performance measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Poitras & John Heaney, 2008. ""How Is The Stock Market Doing?" Using Absence Of Arbitrage To Measure Stock Market Performance," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:04:y:2008:i:01:n:s2010495208500012
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010495208500012

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    More about this item


    Absence of arbitrage; rational security price; S&P 500; detrending; C10; C20; G10; G17;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation


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