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Short-Run Oil Price Drivers: South America’s Energy Integration


  • Mercado, Alejandro

    () (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Aliaga, Javier

    () (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)


The aim of this paper seeks to analyse how the energy price’s cojuntural behaviour and structural conditions affect the short-run and mid-run overview of the energy integration process in South America (SA). For these porpoise we - first describe the world-wide energy agenda and the effect of current oil price swings and the corresponding natural gas adjustment – next we discuss about the regional stakeholders perspective of energy integration. We used two methodological approaches – first we calculate the oil prices according to their structural conditions or fundamental – second we detect the right ARIMA model with outliers and calendar effects for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the Henry Hub (HH) natural gas price. With this information we develop an analysis proposal based on their underlying growth rate and inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercado, Alejandro & Aliaga, Javier, 2009. "Short-Run Oil Price Drivers: South America’s Energy Integration," Documentos de trabajo 10/2009, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2009_010

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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    3. Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
    4. Frei, Christoph W. & Haldi, Pierre-Andre & Sarlos, Gerard, 2003. "Dynamic formulation of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1017-1031, August.
    5. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    6. Andreas Schafer and Henry D. Jacoby, 2006. "Experiments with a Hybrid CGE-MARKAL Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 171-177.
    7. M. Seetharama Gowda & Jong-Shi Pang, 1992. "On Solution Stability of the Linear Complementarity Problem," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 77-83, February.
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    More about this item


    West Texas Intermediate; Henry Hub; Energy Integration; Conjuncture Analysis; Signal Extraction; Underlying Evolution; Underlying Growth; ARIMA Models and Outliers; market fundamentals;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L69 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other


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