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Estimating and forecasting portfolio’s Value-at-Risk with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from crude oil prices and US exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Rania Jammazi

    (University of Sousse)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

    (IPAG Business School)

Abstract

This article proposes a wavelet-based extreme value theory (W-EVT) approach to estimate and forecast portfolio’s Value-at-Risk (VaR) given the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data. Our empirical application to portfolios of crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates shows that the W-EVT models provide an effective and powerful tool for gauging extreme moments and improving the accuracy of portfolio’s VaR estimates and forecasts after noise is removed from the original data.

Suggested Citation

  • Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2017. "Estimating and forecasting portfolio’s Value-at-Risk with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from crude oil prices and US exchange rates," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(11), pages 1352-1362, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:68:y:2017:i:11:d:10.1057_s41274-016-0133-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41274-016-0133-z
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ra l De Jes s Guti rrez & Lidia E. Carvajal Guti rrez & Oswaldo Garcia Salgado, 2023. "Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation for Mexico s Isthmus Crude Oil Using Long-Memory GARCH-EVT Combined Approaches," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 467-480, July.
    4. Zheng, Chengli & Su, Kuangxi & Yao, Yinhong, 2021. "Hedging futures performance with denoising and noise-assisted strategies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Stef, Nicolae & Wissal, Ben Arfi & Sami, Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and connectedness among climate change, technological innovation, and uncertainty: Evidence from a quantile VAR network and wavelet coherence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    6. David Iheke Okorie & Boqiang Lin, 2024. "Global shocks and fiscal stimulus: a tale of an oil-dependent-exporting country," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, December.
    7. Rebecca Abraham & Hani El-Chaarani & Zhi Tao, 2022. "Predictors of Excess Return in a Green Energy Equity Portfolio: Market Risk, Market Return, Value-at-Risk and or Expected Shortfall?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-31, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic processes; wavelet analysis; extreme value theory; VaR; oil-exchange rate portfolios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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