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A model of dynamic tail dependence between crude oil prices and exchange rates

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  • Guo, Ranran
  • Ye, Wuyi

Abstract

We explore the tail dependence between crude oil prices and exchange rates via a dynamic quantile association regression model based on the flexible Fourier form. This method allows us to describe the quantile dependence between conditional distributions of assets. We first perform simulation exercises to gauge the estimation precision of our model. We then undertake empirical analyses to examine the dynamic relation between crude oil and nine exchange rates. We reveal a mildly symmetric tail dependence between these two assets but it increases sharply during the Great Recession of 2008. Further robustness check substantiates the baseline results.

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  • Guo, Ranran & Ye, Wuyi, 2021. "A model of dynamic tail dependence between crude oil prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001534
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101543
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hicham Ayad & Ousama Ben-Salha & Miloud Ouafi, 2023. "Do oil prices predict the exchange rate in Algeria? Time, frequency, and time‐varying Granger causality analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3545-3566, October.
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    4. Xu Wang & Xueyan Wu & Yingying Zhou, 2022. "Conditional Dynamic Dependence and Risk Spillover between Crude Oil Prices and Foreign Exchange Rates: New Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Copula Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-21, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil prices; Simulation analyses; CoVaR; Tail dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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